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The ECB’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey found a slight rise in median inflation expectations for the year ahead, alongside higher expected income and spending growth. Respondents were more pessimistic about economic growth and unemployment, while concerns about tighter credit increased.
The European Central Bank reported on 23 October that euro area consumers’ median expectation for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% in September, from 3.0% in August, while expectations for economic growth weakened and expected unemployment increased. The results offer a monthly read on household views of prices, spending, jobs and credit, but do not represent the views of the ECB’s decision-making bodies or staff.
Consumers’ median perception of inflation over the previous 12 months increased to 3.6% from 3.5%. Expectations for inflation three years ahead stayed at 2.9%, and those five years ahead remained at 2.5%. The ECB also said uncertainty around inflation expectations for the coming year rose slightly and remained above its level before the start of the conflict in the Middle East. The release does not provide a numerical measure of that uncertainty.
Expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months rose to 1.1% from 1.0%, while expected nominal spending growth increased to 3.7% from 3.6%. Consumers’ perceived spending growth over the previous 12 months also edged up, to 5.3% from 5.2%. These are survey expectations and perceptions, not measures of future realized income or spending.
The outlook for economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%. The expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. At the same time, respondents’ perceived current unemployment rate was 10.6%; the ECB said the comparison suggested a broadly stable labour-market outlook. On housing, expected home-price growth increased to 3.5% from 3.4%, while expected mortgage rates a year ahead were unchanged at 4.9%. The net share reporting or expecting tighter credit conditions increased compared with August.
Households See Higher Costs and Credit Pressure
The results show a mixed household outlook: near-term inflation expectations, spending growth and home-price expectations moved up, while respondents became more pessimistic about economic growth and unemployment. Those views matter to policymakers because household expectations can help inform analysis of consumption, price pressures and labour-market conditions. They are one input among many, not a forecast or a direct statement of ECB policy.
The credit findings add a household-finance dimension. More respondents, on balance, reported that access to credit had tightened over the previous 12 months, and the net share expecting further tightening also rose. The release does not quantify the size of those changes, so it does not establish how many households were affected or how much access changed. The income differences are also pronounced in some measures: households in the lowest income quintile expected higher unemployment and mortgage rates than those in the highest quintile.
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A Monthly Survey Across 11 Countries
The ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey is conducted online each month among around 19,000 adults in 11 euro area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. The September wave’s fieldwork took place from 27 August to 28 September 2026, meaning responses were collected across several weeks rather than at a single point in time.
The ECB says the survey supports policy analysis and complements other data sources. Unless otherwise stated, figures in the release refer to the 2% winsorised mean; the inflation results are described as medians. The underlying microdata and further methodological information are available through the ECB’s survey resources. The ECB cautions that survey findings are not the views of its decision-making bodies or staff.
“Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.6%), suggesting a broadly stable labour market outlook.”
— European Central Bank
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Survey Views Are Not Policy Decisions
The release reports what participating consumers said or expected; it does not establish what inflation, unemployment, income or housing prices will actually do. It also does not explain the causes of the month-to-month movements. The ECB did not give numerical values for the increase in inflation uncertainty or the changes in net credit-access responses in the supplied release.
The results cover 11 euro area countries, not every euro area household, and the release does not provide a country-by-country account of the figures in its summary. Differences by income group are reported for selected measures, but the announcement does not establish why those differences exist. The survey findings should not be read as a policy announcement or as evidence of a change in the ECB’s interest-rate decisions.
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October Results Due in November
The ECB scheduled publication of the October 2026 survey results for 27 November. Those results will provide the next monthly comparison for inflation, spending, employment, housing and credit expectations. Until then, the September release remains the latest survey snapshot described here; actual economic data and any ECB policy decisions may offer additional information in the meantime.
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Key Questions
What did euro area consumers expect inflation to be over the next year?
The median expectation was 3.1% in September 2026, up from 3.0% in August, according to the ECB survey.
Did longer-term inflation expectations change?
No. Median expectations were unchanged at 2.9% three years ahead and 2.5% five years ahead.
What did respondents expect for economic growth and unemployment?
Expected economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%. The expected unemployment rate for 12 months ahead rose to 11.3% from 11.0%.
When will the next ECB consumer survey results be released?
The ECB scheduled the October 2026 results for 27 November 2026.
Do the survey findings state the ECB’s policy position?
No. The ECB says the results do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff; they are survey data used alongside other sources for policy analysis.
Source: primary
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