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A Noahpinion essay argues that Donald Trump’s second presidency has failed in public opinion, citing September 2026 polling showing low approval and dissatisfaction with the economy. Those figures are poll results, while the characterization of the presidency as a historic failure is the author’s interpretation; election outcomes and the administration’s longer-term record remain unresolved.
Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 37% in a September Wall Street Journal poll, according to polling cited by Noah Smith, who argues in a Noahpinion essay that the president’s second term has already failed in the court of public opinion. The figures reflect surveyed opinion ahead of the November 2026 midterms; Smith’s description of the presidency as a “world-historic failure” is an assessment, not a polling finding.
The Wall Street Journal survey, conducted Sept. 16–21, put Trump’s approval at 37%, with 61% disapproving. The source material says that was the lowest approval rating for a president heading into midterms in WSJ polling dating to 1990. The comparison is limited to that poll’s historical series and should not be read as a finding across every polling organization or measure.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Sept. 17–20 found 32% approved and 66% disapproved of Trump’s performance. In that survey, 17% approved of his handling of the cost of living. The WSJ poll separately found that 60% thought the economy was worse under Trump and 25% thought it was better. These results describe respondents’ views during the stated survey periods; they do not by themselves establish the causes of economic conditions or predict election results.
Smith also points to signs of political vulnerability for Republicans, including reported movement in congressional polling and weakening support for Trump on the cost of living. He notes that Democrats face their own divisions and that the party remained unpopular on some issues. The essay’s broader claim is that Trump’s political difficulties stem from avoidable decisions and management choices, but that explanation is the author’s interpretation of the evidence.
Midterm Risks for Republicans
The polling matters because it arrives shortly before congressional elections in which control of the House and Senate is at stake. If weak presidential approval translates into lower support for Republican candidates, it could affect the party’s ability to advance its agenda. The source material reports that prediction markets had become more favorable to Democrats in both chambers, while acknowledging that Senate polling may be overstating their prospects and that the electoral map is difficult for them.
Voter views of the cost of living and the economy are a particular concern in the account. The cited surveys show substantial dissatisfaction, including disapproval among Republicans of Trump’s handling of living costs in one poll. That could matter to voters who backed Trump in 2024, though the material does not establish how many have changed their voting intentions or how those opinions will shape turnout.
The distinction between public sentiment and governing results remains important. Approval ratings register how people evaluate a president at a given moment; they do not settle whether policies will produce longer-term benefits or costs. Smith acknowledges that future developments, including the administration’s approach to artificial intelligence, could change how the term is judged.
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Polling Behind the Criticism
Smith frames the essay as an attempt to explain why Trump’s second presidency has struggled rather than simply repeat criticism of the president. He compares the September WSJ approval figure with earlier midterm-era readings in that outlet’s polling, including 44% for Trump in 2018 and 43% for Joe Biden in 2022. The figures have different political and economic contexts, so they provide a reference point rather than a direct measure of equivalent performance.
The source also cites a trend in partisan preferences. It says Republicans had held an advantage over Democrats on several issues a year earlier, while Democrats had since gained ground on issues including the economy and immigration. It further reports that some prominent Trump allies have expressed reservations about the administration. These points support Smith’s argument about political strain, but the supplied material does not include full survey questionnaires, sample details for every poll, or independent verification of all the trend claims.
Smith’s conclusion is explicitly time-bound: he says the term has failed so far in public opinion, while allowing that later developments could alter the historical assessment. The essay is analysis, not an official determination of the presidency’s success or failure.
“There are a lot of things I got wrong… was crazier than I thought. It was more dangerous than I thought.”
— Peter Thiel, as quoted in a social media post cited by Noah Smith
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What the Polls Cannot Settle
The polling offers a snapshot, not a final verdict. The source material does not provide full methodological details for every cited survey, including all sample and weighting information, and results can vary across pollsters. It is also unclear how closely these national approval measures will track votes in individual congressional races.
Election outcomes remain unknown, as do the durability of the reported shifts in party preference and the degree to which economic dissatisfaction will affect turnout. The claim that the administration has made avoidable errors is Smith’s analysis; the supplied material does not independently test that explanation. Nor can current polling resolve how policies on artificial intelligence or other issues may influence later assessments of the term.
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Midterm Results Will Test the Trend
The next major test is the November 2026 midterm election. Results will show whether the low approval readings and reported movement toward Democrats translate into losses for Republicans in congressional races. Campaigns, further polling and economic developments before voting may also shift the picture.
After the election, updated surveys and the administration’s policy record will provide more evidence about whether current dissatisfaction has persisted. Smith’s essay leaves open the possibility that later outcomes could change how the presidency is judged, while arguing that the public-opinion damage is already clear in the polling he cites.
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Key Questions
What is the central claim of the Noahpinion essay?
Author Noah Smith argues that Trump’s second term has already failed in the court of public opinion, pointing to low approval ratings and dissatisfaction with the economy. Calling it a “world-historic failure” is Smith’s characterization, not an independently established fact.
What did the September polls report?
The cited Wall Street Journal poll found 37% approval and 61% disapproval from Sept. 16–21. A Reuters/Ipsos poll from Sept. 17–20 found 32% approval and 66% disapproval. Poll results are snapshots of the people surveyed during those periods.
Do the polls show that Democrats will win the midterms?
No. The source says prediction markets had shifted toward Democrats in House and Senate contests, but election outcomes remain uncertain. National approval numbers do not determine the results of individual races.
What remains uncertain about the presidency’s record?
It is not yet clear how the midterms will turn out, whether the polling trends will last, or how future policy outcomes will affect judgments of the administration. Smith acknowledges that later developments could change the broader historical assessment.
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