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Economist and blogger Noah Smith argues that decades of US spending on smaller class sizes have produced little educational return, and that New York City’s new class-size mandate will cost about $1 billion that could be spent differently. He contends poor, majority-nonwhite schools already receive more per-student funding, and that grade inflation — not money — is the core failure of weak schools.
Economist and blogger Noah Smith published an essay this month arguing that the United States should stop spending money on smaller class sizes, calling the decades-long national push to reduce class size wasteful and pointing to New York City’s new class-size mandate, which he says will cost the city about $1 billion in additional teacher hiring. The post, published on his Noahpinion blog, responds to New York Times columnist Nikole Hannah-Jones‘ account of her daughter’s struggles at a low-performing New York City public school, and takes aim at the argument that underfunding explains those schools’ failures.
Smith’s argument rests on two main claims. First, he disputes the funding-equity argument Hannah-Jones made, in which she cited a 2019 EdBuild analysis finding that schools in predominantly nonwhite districts receive $23 billion less in annual funding than heavily white counterparts. Smith calls this “a very basic math error,” arguing that total spending differs mainly because there are far more predominantly white districts in America, and that spending per student is the relevant measure.
Citing a Brookings Institution report on school spending equity from this year, Smith says poor, predominantly nonwhite schools actually receive more funding per student than other schools — even after adjusting for local cost of living — and that spending on the poorest, least-white schools has risen steadily, especially in New York City, since the turn of the century. He cautions that this does not prove additional funding would not help, noting past funding increases have helped such schools.
Second, Smith argues schools have spent much of that money on hiring more teachers, driven by the belief that smaller classes improve education. Citing National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) data, he says teacher hiring has historically outpaced administrative hiring, and that the rising number of teachers per student means class sizes keep falling. New York State, he notes, recently passed a law mandating maximum class sizes, forcing New York City to hire substantially more teachers at a cost of roughly $1 billion to the city budget. Smith contends that lowering student-to-staff ratios often lowers the average quality of teaching staff — a point commentator Matthew Yglesias has also made — and that the money would produce better results if spent on improving instruction and grading accountability.
Why Class-Size Spending Is Under Fire
Smith’s post is a response to a widely read New York Times essay by Nikole Hannah-Jones, who described enrolling her daughter Najya in a New York City public school out of egalitarian conviction, only to find the school was failing her child. The central episode: Najya earned A’s in algebra, believed she understood the material, then repeatedly failed the corresponding standardized tests, coming home sobbing. Hannah-Jones attributed the school’s failures partly to funding gaps between nonwhite and white districts.
Smith, who says he attended public schools himself and believes American schools overall deliver “pretty good value for the money,” argues Hannah-Jones encountered one of the genuinely bad schools — and that their defining feature is grade inflation without learning, not lack of funds. He connects this to complaints from University of California professors that their students cannot do middle-school math, blaming both UC’s decision to drop standardized admission tests and the K-12 schools that awarded unearned grades.
The broader backdrop is a decades-long, multi-generational national effort to shrink class sizes, which Smith says continues despite weak evidence of returns. He cites a 2023 Washington Post column by Valerie Strauss as an example of the enduring assumption that smaller classes are self-evidently better.
“Parents and voters both tend to perceive low student:staff ratios as a reliable indicator of school quality but it’s often extremely wasteful and involves lowering the average quality of the staff.”
— Matthew Yglesias, via X
Where the Evidence Disputes Remain
Smith’s essay is an opinion-driven analysis, not a peer-reviewed study, and several of its claims are contested or incomplete. The research literature on class size is mixed rather than uniformly negative — the well-known Tennessee STAR experiment found meaningful gains from smaller classes in early grades, and Smith’s post does not engage with that evidence directly. His assertion that the research case for smaller classes is weak is his interpretation, and Valerie Strauss and others continue to argue the opposite.
The comparison between EdBuild’s $23 billion figure and Brookings’ per-student findings involves different methodologies and different units of measurement, and readers should note that both analyses come from their respective organizations rather than from a single reconciled dataset. Smith also acknowledges his data excludes New York City in some charts while claiming the city is “even more lopsided” in per-student funding for high-need schools. Whether additional funding would improve struggling schools if spent differently — a possibility he concedes — remains an open empirical question.
New York’s Mandate Faces Budget Test
The most concrete test of Smith’s argument will be New York City’s implementation of the state class-size law, which requires hiring enough teachers to meet maximum class sizes at an estimated cost of about $1 billion. Observers will be watching whether the city can fund the mandate without cuts elsewhere, whether the hiring wave affects teacher quality, and whether student outcomes move.
The debate over grade inflation and academic standards is also likely to intensify, particularly in California, where University of California faculty complaints about unprepared students have kept pressure on both K-12 grading practices and UC’s test-optional admissions policy. Expect further exchanges between funding-equity advocates, who argue high-need schools still lack sufficient resources, and efficiency-focused commentators like Smith and Yglesias, who argue money is being misspent.
Key Questions
Who is arguing against spending on smaller classes?
Economist and blogger Noah Smith, in a September 2026 Noahpinion post, with supporting commentary from Matthew Yglesias, who argues low student-to-staff ratios are often wasteful and lower average staff quality.
How much is New York City’s class-size mandate expected to cost?
According to Smith’s post, roughly $1 billion to the city budget, driven by the additional teacher hiring required to comply with New York State’s new law mandating maximum class sizes.
Do poor, majority-nonwhite schools receive less funding?
It depends on the measure. A 2019 EdBuild analysis cited by Hannah-Jones found a $23 billion gap in total annual funding. Smith, citing a Brookings report, argues that per-student spending at poor, predominantly nonwhite schools is actually higher than average, even adjusted for cost of living. The two figures use different methodologies.
What does Smith say actually makes a school bad?
He argues the hallmark of a failing school is grade inflation without teaching — awarding A’s to students who have not mastered the material, as Hannah-Jones described happening to her daughter in algebra.
Is the evidence on class size settled?
No. Smith argues the benefits of smaller classes are overstated, but other research — including the Tennessee STAR experiment — found gains in early grades. The debate remains open, and Smith’s piece is an opinion analysis rather than a new study.
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